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| Photo credit: Joe Biden for President, Flickr. License. |
For the longest time, pundits reveled about how steady the presidential race had been between Joe Biden and Donald Trump despite the intervention of events that would in any other year have 'reset' the election over and over again. Biden has consistently enjoyed a 7-10 point lead in national polls and roughly a 5-7 point spread in key battleground states. But the numbers are finally beginning to move.
Away from Trump.
Polls taken since the first presidential debate on Thursday - can you believe the first debate was just last Thursday? - have decidedly moved towards Biden. Since Trump's COVID diagnosis and hospitalization, the movement has accelerated.
NATIONAL POLLING
We woke up this morning to a CNN national poll of likely voters putting Biden ahead of Trump by a whopping 16 points, 57% to 41%, among likely voters. The survey was conducted mostly after Trump's COVID diagnosis was announced. Biden led by 7 points in CNN's late August/early September poll.
In an NBC News poll conducted after the debate but before the announcement of Trump's diagnosis puts Biden ahead by 14 points among registered, 53-39. In the NBC poll, voters thought Biden had the better temperament to be president by a 2-1 margin. The topline numbers contrast with another NBC poll conducted before the debate, when Biden led by "just" 8 points.
In both the NBC and CNN surveys, Biden's expanded lead is solidifying as the bottom is falling out of Trump's support among seniors and women. Biden leads women 66-32 in the CNN poll, and suburban women 58-33 in the NBC News survey. Among seniors, Biden is trouncing Trump 62-35 in NBC's polling, and by 22 points, 60-38 in CNN's.
Biden is also running up the numbers among young voters and voters of color, now leading voters of color by almost 50 points (72-25) and posting a nearly 2-1 advantage among young voters (62-33 among the 18-34 age group), according to CNN.
Donald Trump, in the meantime, has solidified his support among non-college educated white men, increasing his support from 61% a month ago to 67% now.
Even the national polls released this week showing a 'closer' race have Biden up almost double digits. A Morning Consult poll today has Biden up 9 points (52-43), and a Survey USA/Cheddar poll shows Biden leading by 10 points, 52 to 42. But the post-hospitalization portion of that survey finds Biden opening up a 16-point gap, 56 percent to 40 for Trump.
STATE POLLING
The national numbers are not the only ones moving. Biden has opened up a 12-point lead among registered voters in Pennsylvania (11 points for likely voters) according to Monmouth polling, which is a shift of 8 points in Biden's favor since August 31.
A CNBC Change Research survey that shows Biden leading by 10 points nationally also has good news for the Democratic nominee in key swing states. It shows Biden continuing to hold a lead and polling at or near 50% in swing states won by Trump in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
A WDIV/Detroit News post-debate poll has Biden's lead growing to 9 points, 48-39, a near-doubling of his strength from early September.
OVERALL POLLING PICTURE
All told, Biden's advantage over Trump has grown nationally and in battleground states in just the past week.
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9/29 Five Thirty Eight |
10/6 Five Thirty Eight |
9/29, RCP |
10/5, RCP |
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|
National |
Biden +7.1 | Biden +8.2 |
Biden +7.2 |
Biden +9.0 |
| Pennsylvania | Biden +5.4 | Biden +6.5 | Biden +6.3 | Biden +6.5 |
| Michigan | Biden +6.9 | Biden +7.0 | Biden +5.0 | Biden +5.8 |
| Wisconsin | Biden +6.7 | Biden +6.9 | Biden +5.5 | Biden +5.6 |
| Arizona | Biden +3.4 | Biden +4.3 | Biden +3.0 | Biden +3.4 |
| Ohio | Biden +1.0 | Biden +0.4 | unavailable | Biden +1.2 |
| Florida | Biden +1.8 | Biden +3.4 | Biden +1.4 | Biden +3.5 |
|
North |
Biden +1.0 | Biden +1.8 | Biden +0.5 | Biden +1.5 |
| Nevada | Biden +6.4 | Biden +6.6 | unavailable | Biden +5.3 |
|
New |
Biden +8.5 | Biden +9.7 | unavailable | Biden +8.4 |
| Iowa | Trump +0.7 | Trump 1.2 | unavailable | Biden +0.5 |
| Minnesota | Biden +8.8 | Biden +9.2 | Biden +9.4 | no new data |
EARLY VOTING SURGE
Polling, however, is no longer the only way to get a snapshot of voter sentiment. Early voting and mail-in voting have begun in multiple states, and the reports and data from those states also paint an optimistic picture for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. 4.2 million Americans have already cast their ballots, more than four weeks before election day. By this point, only 75,000 people had early-voted in 2016. The surges in early voting are being visualized by lines around city blocks and parking lots across the battleground states.
As we get closer to election day, the window for Trump to reverse his fortunes is closing rapidly.
The massive early voting is coming from two predominant reasons, which are actually the same reason. Both the coronavirus and ensuing concerns about election-day polling station crowding is driving turnout, as is voters' disgust with Donald Trump, whom they cannot wait to get out of office. But polls have demonstrated over and over that voters who have coronavirus on top of mind - which is the majority of us - are also the most eager to vote Trump out.
Americans are tired of Trump. Americans are ready for change.
There is no room for complacency. Let's go.